Barred from running in the 2027 French presidential elections, the Rassemblement National (National Rally) leader will have to exert influence from the sidelines instead of on the pitch.
Le Pen will undoubtedly continue playing a key role in reactionary politics. She has managed to transform the xenophobic nationalism of her father’s Front National into an international brand, inspiring the growth of neofascist thinking throughout Europe.
This is why it matters that Le Pen’s political aspirations in France have been constrained because of something she did in the European Parliament. Like other far-right politicians, she was able to use that venue to increase her leverage at home, especially since her crime was using her parliamentary assistants for purposes outside of their official role.
Although Le Pen’s conviction is embarrassing and will cause significant short-term damage to her political career, there is no consensus on its long-term impact, either for her or the movement she has helmed.
Marine Le Pen has denied any wrongdoing, asserting that her actions aligned with many MEPs’ practices. This admission puts her in a bind, even if that is the case.
The French far right has long positioned itself as the champion of the “common people” against a corrupt elite. A conviction for embezzlement, particularly in a climate where trust in politicians is already low, could undermine Le Pen’s image as an outsider fighting against the establishment. This could lead to her losing credibility among both her diehard supporters and the broader electorate.
Le Pen’s conviction also poses significant challenges for Rassemblement National. The party has made strides in recent years, distancing itself from the controversial legacy of the Front National by focusing on economic nationalism.
Having its leader convicted of corruption could be a significant setback in this rebranding effort, mainly since it follows closely after a scandal involving loans Rassemblement National received from a Russian bank, on which it subsequently defaulted. Critics may seize the opportunity to portray the party as untrustworthy, reinforcing the far right’s association with dubious practices.
As the example of Donald Trump has forcefully demonstrated, however, the perception that Le Pen is being punished for something everybody does could also work in her favour.
Le Pen’s supporters may rally around her, viewing the conviction as a politically motivated attack to undermine her party’s influence. This phenomenon frequently arises in populist movements, whose leaders thrive on narratives of victimisation and persecution.
The Rassemblement National leader could frame her conviction as a sign that she is challenging the status quo, potentially galvanising her base and attracting new voters who see her as a political martyr.
It’s also possible that Le Pen’s conviction will have different consequences for her than it does for her party.
Internal divisions within Rassemblement National may surface as factions debate the best way forward in light of Le Pen’s legal issues. Some members may advocate for a complete overhaul of the party’s strategy, while others may insist on continued loyalty to Le Pen’s leadership.
This schism could weaken the far-right party’s cohesion and effectiveness, particularly as France approaches future elections.
Le Pen’s conviction also has broader implications for French politics. The nationalist party has been gaining traction, as evidenced by Le Pen’s alarmingly strong performance in the 2022 presidential elections, where she reached the runoff against incumbent President Emmanuel Macron. The conviction could either stifle this momentum or serve as a rallying point for her supporters.
If Le Pen’s conviction results in diminished electoral prospects, it may embolden more traditional political parties, particularly the centre-right Republicans and the Parti socialiste, as they seek to reclaim ground lost to Rassemblement National.
This potential resurgence could lead to a more fragmented political landscape in France, where voters may turn to other populist or nationalist candidates who might replace Le Pen if she were to be sidelined.
The implications of Le Pen’s conviction also extend beyond France, impacting the broader European political landscape.
The rise of the far right across Europe has been a defining trend in recent years, with extremist parties in Italy, Hungary, and Poland gaining influence. A weakening of Le Pen might signal a shift in this trend, potentially leading to a reevaluation of far-right strategies elsewhere across the continent.
If European leaders respond to the threat posed by Donald Trump’s dramatic reshaping of global politics by working more closely together, that could also reinforce the political centre at the expense of far-right parties.
Conversely, if Le Pen manages to emerge from this conviction unscathed by galvanising support or framing the legal proceedings as politically motivated, her case could serve as a blueprint for other far-right leaders facing similar challenges. This could empower them to adopt more aggressive stances against the establishment, further polarising European politics.
One predictable response has been the claim, put forward by Rassemblement National President Jordan Bardella and others, that Le Pen’s conviction illustrates the “dictatorship of judges” in France.
This echoes similar claims by Elon Musk and other supporters of Donald Trump that judges have been overstepping their authority by ruling that the president’s executive orders go too far. Stephen Miller, one of Trump’s grumpier acolytes, recently described this judicial pushback as “tyranny”.
Beyond the immediate political implications, Marine Le Pen’s conviction raises questions about the legal and institutional frameworks governing political funding in Europe.
Le Pen’s corruption scandal highlights the need for greater transparency and accountability in politicians’ use of public funds, particularly in an era when trust in institutions is waning.
If the case prompts reforms in political financing, it could have lasting effects on how political parties operate, potentially making it more challenging for parties like Rassemblement National to function as they have in the past.
A spokesman for Vladimir Putin decried Le Pen’s conviction as a “violation of democratic norms”. It’s hard to imagine that advancing such claims on behalf of an openly kleptocratic regime will carry any weight. Likewise, Viktor Orbán’s cri de coeur, “Je suis Marine!” hardly merits consideration unless as a tacit admission of their common acquaintance with corruption.
One of the most surprising aspects of Le Pen’s conviction is how pundits have responded, focusing more on the dangers it poses than the opportunities it presents. Too few analyses affirm that Le Pen had to bow to the law, which she clearly and massively broke, whereas Donald Trump did not. Progressives need to do more to promote and legitimise the rule of law.
Promoting constitutional patriotism may be the best lesson to take away from this affair.
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Photograph courtesy of Prachatai.Published under a Creative Commons license.
