The father, whose son conveniently disappears in Russia-occupied Crimea at a crucial point in a corruption scandal investigation.
The prime minister, under whose government 35,000 Czechs died of COVID-19.
There are many ways to remember Andrej Babiš, the millionaire and politician who, eight years after being appointed prime minister of the Czech Republic, is most likely to return to power following parliamentary elections on October 4th.
But before he can do so, Babiš, whose party ANO won 80 out of 200 seats in parliament, needs to form a coalition to govern. The process of building this coalition is attracting considerable attention.
You can understand the concern. Like neighbouring Slovakia and Hungary, the Czech Republic is drifting rightwards, exchanging neoliberalism for far-right populism, and Moscow for Brussels.
All the hallmarks of Western democracy – an independent press and free civil society – are at risk.
The Babiš Recipe: Ignore Prague, Focus on the Rest
The party that Babiš founded in 2012 is called Akce nespokojených občanů in Czech, which means “Action of Dissatisfied Citizens.”
The acronym ANO, which also means “yes,” is an ideal name for a populist party that purports to represent the people and oppose the establishment.
Betting on resentment of growing economic inequality in Czech society proved correct for Babiš. He was appointed premier in December 2017 and served until the end of 2021.
In 2024, alongside Viktor Orbán, Babiš founded the far-right Patriots for Europe, now the third-largest political group in the European Parliament.
The Patriots are a case study in nationalist toxicity.
Recruiting everyone from Italy’s Lega and France’s Rassemblement National to Hungary’s Fidesz and Spain’s Vox, it’s the most significant far-right alliance in Europe since the Axis Powers.
Like their 20th-century fascist predecessors, the Patriots for Europe group and its constituent parties are a product of their time and exploitation of disenchantment.
Babiš understood early on that large segments of Central Europe’s population had been left behind in the economic and political transition that began when the Czech Republic joined the EU.
Many foreigners who visit only ever see Prague, giving them an unrepresentative view of the country. The city ranks as the fourth-wealthiest region in the European Union, surpassing Brussels, Paris, and Berlin in prosperity.
Prague’s affluence is often perceived in the rest of the Czech Republic as a symbol of arrogance, with prospects for well-paid jobs being minimal or requiring a move to Germany or Austria for work.
Inflation hit a record 15% in 2022, one of the highest in the European Union, with food prices increasing by 26%. At the same time, average pensions remain under 900 euros (half of what most pensioners get in Germany or France).
For young people, the explosion of real estate prices in Prague and Brno, the second city, means that purchasing a flat is almost impossible, while renting has become increasingly unaffordable.
In this context, the Czech Republic has the highest rate per capita of Ukrainian refugees: a varying number reaching half a million at times, for a total population of just over 10 million.
It’s a perfect breeding ground for populism, and for blaming declining purchasing power on Brussels, subsidies for Ukrainian refugees, and growing energy prices on Russian sanctions.
Promising cheaper basic goods and higher pensions, particularly for those nostalgic for socialist times, Babiš’ program proved successful for the second time.
The regions where he got between 40% to 50% of the vote are located in the northern and western areas that bear the brunt of socioeconomic hardship.
How Far Right Will ANO Go?
For ANO to form a majority coalition, at least 21 seats are required.
The only two political allies capable of providing the missing seats are two far-right parties: The SPD, which gained 15 seats, and AUTO, which secured 13 seats.
SPD (Svoboda a přímá demokracie, “Freedom and Direct Democracy”) was founded by one of the most controversial figures in Czech politics, Tomio Okamura, a politician born into a Korean-Japanese-Czech family who launched the party in 2015 based on an openly far-right, anti-immigration, anti-EU, and anti-Ukraine agenda.
Okamura is currently being prosecuted for incitement to racial hatred over his 2024 billboard campaign, which depicted a black man with a bleeding knife. His re-election as a member of parliament means Okamura has regained his parliamentary immunity.
Ironically, only a vote from MPs can lift his immunity. Meanwhile, in negotiations with ANO, the SPD is suggesting that Okamura should be appointed speaker of the parliament – the third-highest constitutional official in the Czech Republic.
The second party, AUTO (in Czech, Motoristé sobě, meaning ‘car drivers for themselves’, abbreviated as AUTO), was established in 2022 and shares similar far-right programmes and ideology. This includes opposing the New Green Deal, advocating for car ownership, and supporting coal and nuclear energy.
However, less than ten days after the election results, negotiations intended to lead to a coalition agreement by 10 October have stalled.
Filip Turek, leader of the AUTO party, is under police investigation for posting anti-Roma, anti-Black, and homophobic content on Facebook, which has since been deleted but was accessed by independent media.
While Turek has owned up to the posts, describing them as “some bullshit I wrote 15 years ago”, Babiš has already described the allegations as “serious”, and according to local media, this could cost Turek his potential position as foreign minister.
A Test for Democratic Institutions
Although the Czech Republic is still recognised abroad as the homeland of playwright and humanist Václav Havel, who chose to stay in politics to promote democracy and lead the country towards EU accession, tolerance and inclusion no longer dominate the Czech mainstream.
In a recent poll, about half of Czechs indicated they would not want to have Muslims as neighbours. The figure reaches 75% in the case of Roma neighbours.
Discrimination and hate speech also extend to other groups and institutions: the LGBTQI+ community, independent media and civil society – as is the case now in Slovakia.
In terms of foreign policy, while ANO advocates for the Czech Republic to remain in the EU and NATO, the SPD calls for a referendum similar to Brexit.
Recent research suggests that Russian influence, through the press, social media, and even chain emails shared by elderly Czechs, exceeds the impact of reliable sources, according to researchers.
President Peter Pavel, a strong EU advocate and a supporter of democratic values and institutions, will serve until March 2028 and is the Czech Republic’s best hope for resilience.
The president has already resisted Babiš’s attempt to appoint the new government too hastily.
Tellingly, Zdislava Pokorná, the investigative journalist who brought up the case of the deleted posts by Turek, is already receiving threats, according to the Czech police.
Photograph courtesy of Vox España. Published under a Creative Commons license.
