For Israel, the defeat is the culmination of Benjamin Netanyahu’s disastrous policies.
Netanyahu has always believed in pushing the limits of what the world, especially the United States, would tolerate. That was a successful strategy for a long time.
Israel has leveraged American support and European acquiescence to maintain its high standard of living and to continue its often illegal and unprecedented behaviour.
Now, the far-right leader’s brazen hubris is finally catching up with him. Unsurprisingly, Iran is at the heart of it.
Bibi has been obsessed with the Islamic Republic for four decades.
In 2015, when the Obama Administration joined the other permanent members of the UN Security Council and Germany to conclude the Iran nuclear deal, Netanyahu conspired with congressional Republicans to undermine it.
He nearly succeeded, but in the end, the United States Senate was unable to secure enough votes to overturn President Barack Obama’s decision.
The cost of Netanyahu’s subversion, however, was steep.
That moment began the process of sacrificing Israel’s treasured status in the United States as a bipartisan cause.
The widespread backing of the Democrats and GOP was a treasure that other Israeli premiers recognised and prized. It made Israel invulnerable to the vagaries of American politics and ensured support that only deepened over the years.
Bibi changed all that.
In the years since he tried to undermine a Democratic president, Netanyahu doubled down on partisanship, openly allying himself and Israel with the Republican Party.
With good reason, the prime minister believed Republicans—motivated by Christian fervour and a simplistic worldview—were less inclined to restrain Israel than Democrats.
By the time Joe Biden demonstrated that a Democratic president was just as anti-Palestinian as any Republican, the partisan split had already widened.
Biden lost the support of many of his voters over Gaza. Yet Bibi continued to turn his back on the Democrats, openly embracing Donald Trump’s reelection campaign.
The Gaza genocide drove Democrats firmly away from Israel. It even damaged Israel’s standing among young Republicans. But the war in Iran marks a whole new chapter.
Netanyahu obviously pushed Trump into this war.
His visits to the White House and phone calls with the president came at a rate that dwarfed anything we had seen between Israeli and American heads of state in the past.
As a result, Israel will be blamed by a wide range of Americans across both parties for ushering in the United States’ worst strategic defeat in its history.
This was not the result of any magical influence Bibi has over Trump. From all the available evidence, it was not the result of dirty tricks or even bribery.
Indeed, there seems to have been no pressure involved.
It was simply Netanyahu flattering Trump, emphasising how easy it would be to defeat Iran and how history would remember him as the president who finally took action.
It wasn’t substantially different from the case Netanyahu has made to all of the US leader’s predecessors, including Donald Trump himself, during his first term.
The difference is that those other presidents weren’t complete idiots. This time, Trump doesn’t have anyone to talk sense into him as he did between 2016 and 2021.
The blame is going to hit Israel hard, although not all at once.
US military support will inevitably decline. But, most importantly, the political and diplomatic shielding Israel has relied on over the decades will evaporate.
Although preparations have been made to diversify Israel’s military suppliers, including Germany, India and Serbia, no third country will want to replace the US as a patron.
The damage inflicted on America’s global standing has been far too great. Israel will have to change dramatically if it is to survive.
Such changes will lead to a significant percentage of Israel’s Jewish population emigrating, joining a growing expat community in Europe and the United States.
Most of those who depart will be Jews with centrist and left-wing politics, leaving behind a core of radical nationalists and Ultra Orthodox, unable to sustain themselves.
Netanyahu’s foul behaviour has also caused hostility to rise dramatically toward Jews all around the world, not only Israelis. It’s likely to get worse before it gets better.
Like the historical Jewish wartime leader Shimon Bar Kokhba, Netanyahu, who once fancied himself the modern-day “King of the Jews,” will have led them first to unprecedented military strength and then to disaster.
History is echoing for the Jewish people. However, this time, our folly has brought enormous harm to millions of others.
Netanyahu as Bar Kokhba
Bar Kokhba holds a special relevance for Israel and the Zionist movement in 2026.
In her seminal Recovered Roots: Collective Memory and the Making of Israeli National Tradition, Israeli historian Yael Zerubavel examines “The transformation of Bar Kokhba from a dubious leader of a failed revolt to a prominent heroic figure from antiquity,” which she identifies as an important feature of the Zionist reshaping of the past.
Shimon Bar Kokhba was a leader of the final Judean revolt against Rome in the years following the sacking of Jerusalem and the destruction of Herod’s Temple.
Bar Kokhba was a charismatic leader who declared himself the Messiah and secured the support of arguably the leading rabbi of the day, Rabbi Akiva. He proclaimed himself the sovereign of Judea, styling himself the prince of Israel for three years.
In the end, Bar Kokhba was defeated and retreated to the stronghold of Betar. The Romans laid siege to Betar, eventually destroyed it, and killed Bar Kokhba.
Jewish tradition long recognised both sides of Bar Kokhba. His military acumen was recognised, but he was a cautionary tale.
Ironically, much of his tactical skill lay in building underground networks from which his soldiers could attack the more powerful Romans. The parallels with Hamas, lost on most Israelis, should be noted.
But Bar Kokhba’s claims to being the Messiah, along with many examples in the Talmud recounting his irrational behaviour, were seen as compromising any earthly merit he had.
This is not unlike Netanyahu’s own corruption and excesses in office, many of which have been major scandals in Israel.
But most egregiously, Bar Kokhba’s claim to be the Messiah and his frequent assertions that the Jews could defeat the Romans without God’s help were considered blasphemous. Therefore, Jewish tradition generally regarded Bar Kokhba’s defeat at Betar as divine retribution.
In a similar fashion, Netanyahu’s frequent contempt for the United States, his patron, led to Israel’s undoing.
Bar Kokhba did not claim to be greater than God, but merely asked God not to work against his goals. Jewish tradition, like that of Islam, invokes God’s will when speaking of plans, saying “If God wills it” (Im Yirtzah Hashem), as Muslims qualify such goals with “Insha’Allah” (God willing).
Netanyahu makes a similar mistake. He knows that Israel cannot do what it does without American support. He just believes that, as he was once caught on video saying, “America is a thing you can move very easily.”
However true that may be, it has limits. Netanyahu did not acknowledge them. His overreach has become apparent, even if the consequences take time to become clear.
In discussing Bar Kokhba’s place in Jewish and Israeli memory, Zerubavel notes, “The Zionist narrative thus shifts its focus from the outcome of the revolt to the act of rebelling.”
The Zionist version portrays Bar Kokhba as a hero who died a martyr’s death, holding out against overwhelming forces. It also tends to downplay the consequences of that uprising, which led to the final destruction of the Jewish communal presence in the land, killing nearly 600,000 and driving many others into flight.
We are seeing the same hubris in Israel’s leadership today.
While Netanyahu probably won’t lead Israel to the kind of destruction Bar Kokhba inflicted, he has already undermined Israel’s standing in the world and support in the United States. These are indispensable to Israel’s survival.
Over the coming years, Israelis will be forced to decide whether to continue with perpetual war or finally grant Palestinians the rights they deserve as much as any other human beings.
For a country as nationalist as Israel, it won’t be an easy choice. If Israelis choose wisely, it will mean many difficult days ahead. However, the alternative is more bloodshed and destruction.
That is the choice Bibi “Bar Kokhba” Netanyahu has led Israel to.
Photograph courtesy of Joel Schalit. All rights reserved.
