Burnham pitches himself as an outsider. His tenure as the mayor of Greater Manchester has cemented his reputation as a progressive centre-left politician with authentic charisma.
Although several prime ministers were born in the English North and Midlands, only one had a distinctive Northern identity: Harold Wilson. The memory of Wilson remains the archetype of the Old Labour Man for many Red Wall voters.
Now Burnham is the second proud Northerner to serve as premier.
His campaign in Makerfield was defined by Northern cultural nostalgia, particularly pop music, with references to The Smiths, The Stone Roses and Oasis. Burnham ended his victory speech on Friday with “True Faith”, by New Order. The lyrics “I used to think that the day would never come” seemed to capture a desperate yearning for radical change inside Labour.
Once a New Labour machine man, Burnham has transformed into the great hope of the soft left. But his nice guy persona won’t be enough by itself.
Many left-wing critics of the Labour government are concerned that he will only be a continuity figure. From this perspective, Keir Starmer’s downfall is essentially a self-coup by Labour Together (now rebranded as Think Labour) with apparatchik Josh Simons effectively giving the Makerfield seat to Burnham.
The dismal character of the Labour Party hasn’t changed over the weekend. It’s still an undemocratic organisation with most of its MPs hand-picked by Lord Peter Mandelson and Morgan McSweeney.
Labour strategists are desperate for a Burnham bounce, but they should remember that Gordon Brown had the Brown bounce in 2007 before losing three years later. The difference is that Brown was perceived as a consummate insider.
During the COVID-19 pandemic, Burnham got the nickname “King of the North” by taking on Boris Johnson’s government. His resistance even inspired half-serious demands for Northern independence.
Right now, Burnham is railing against London to reach out to disillusioned Red Wall voters. The aim of his “Northern strategy” is to soak up Green voters and fend off Reform UK.
That posture will be harder to maintain once he is settled in as PM. Breaking with Westminster is easier when it feels far away. Nevertheless, that is what he must do if he hopes to repair the country and save Labour in the bargain.
Can Burnham stay the course?
The danger is that Burnhamism will turn out to be smart casual Starmerism with nice eyelashes and a Northern accent. But that depressing prospect is by no means fated.
Burnham’s Labour government could break with the last two years and secure meaningful gains for working-class people. This would take political will and strategic thinking.
A good start would be to hit the ground running, tearing up Starmer’s most unpopular policies, like cutting the winter food allowance and mandating digital IDs, which he has already scrapped.
Burnham is ahead in the game just for supporting public control and renationalisation. The irony is that he can take credit for some of the concessions Starmer made to the soft left and build on them.
Public control of bus services in Manchester has brought down costs for working-class people. The success of the Bee Network has been crucial to Burnham’s popularity as a mayor.
The Labour government needs to go much further than cheaper travel. The UK is about to take a massive hit from the Iran war, and many people are struggling with the cost-of-living crisis as it is.
What Burnham really needs to prioritise is safeguarding energy and food supplies. He should be thinking about everything from price controls on essentials to rebuilding the national food reserve.
The public is angry for good reason. Britain is battered and broken after 16 years of disastrous governance – austerity, Brexit and the botched pandemic response – laid waste to this isle.
Much like Starmer before him, Burnham is still talking about growth. “Good growth,” to be exact. Labour has always relied on economic growth to offset distributional battles. But this is not likely in 2026.
Burnham will struggle to replicate Manchester’s success across the country. The nebulous ideology of Manchesterism might be best reduced to regeneration through a mixture of public and private initiative built on rising property values.
Unlike other post-industrial cities, Manchester has diversified its economy and enjoys a vibrant cultural sector. The Northwest city has boomed. Unfortunately, this boom has been partially driven by an unsustainable property bubble.
Almost every great politician is a beneficiary of fortunate circumstances. Burnham built his reputation as Manchester mayor on this bubble and an Osbornite devolution conceived in neoliberal terms.
No one should ever forget that Manchester is a deeply divided city. Class still blights the lives of Mancunians, as it does everywhere else, with high levels of poverty denying many people a fulfilling life.
At present, Labour has no serious plan for redistributing wealth and income in the UK. But this is precisely what Burnham requires if he wants to save his party.
It doesn’t help that he has already tied his own hands by saying he’ll stick to Tory fiscal rules. Burnham will need to raise taxes to avoid painful spending cuts at a time when public services are creaking from years of austerity.
Taxing the rich is popular, even with many right-wing voters. Burnham hasn’t ruled out a wealth tax, and there is speculation he might raise the capital gains tax to match income rates.
Another problem is that Burnham faces a tight three-year window before he must call an election. Voters will need to feel the difference in their wallets for them to support Labour at the next election.
The danger of getting this wrong can’t be exaggerated. A Reform-Tory coalition with Nigel Farage as PM remains the most likely outcome of the next election, but that is not inevitable.
Farage is currently on the ropes, facing a scandal over his acceptance of a £5 million “gift” from a crypto-trading billionaire. He has failed to unite the right and no longer gets a free ride from the press.
Andy Burnham will be looking at this and seeing an opportunity with his Northern strategy. The Greens, who had been surging in recent months, are also losing momentum after surging in the May local elections.
The Labour government might survive under these conditions. But whether it deserves to survive is another question. Anything less than radical change will just offset the challenges for another few years.
Photograph courtesy of Number 10. Published under a Creative Commons license.
